What Will it Take to Kick-Start the Real Estate Market?
The real estate market in and around Hamilton and the GTA has shown some fluctuating trends over the past 12 months. While interest rates in Canada have eased from their post-pandemic highs, offering some relief to prospective buyers, average prices in most GTA markets are either flat or down significantly from their peaks. Despite this, the number of new listings so far in 2025 far exceeds the number of sales, and sales volumes are down compared to years prior.
The Cornerstone Association of REALTORS for Hamilton and Burlington reported September as the third consecutive month with improved sales activity compared to the previous month; however, sales volumes in September are still 27% below long-term trends and 10% lower than last year.
So, what will it take to encourage more buyers to commit? Are buyers waiting for economic and political headwinds to become more predictable? Lower interest rates could help, but the Bank of Canada has signalled a cautious approach to further reductions, citing inflation concerns.
We asked two local real estate experts to weigh in.”If history is any guide, the market isn’t broken — it’s just resetting”, says David Boersma of Benchmark Real Estate Group in the Niagara area. Boersma likened the recent trend to the early 1990s, when Canada experienced a similar correction. “Interest rates spiked, consumer confidence collapsed, and real estate sales volumes plunged,” he says. “Prices in Ontario dropped for nearly seven years, bottoming out around 1996, and it took until about 2002 for values to climb back to their late-’80s peak.”
While September showed some positive improvements in sales numbers, overall, they fell short of recent years’ levels. An increase in listings in the area, as across much of southern Ontario, has created a substantial supply that has influenced pricing and softened the market.
“To get buyers off the fence, it will take more than small rate moves — it will take clarity and confidence,” says Kevin Girard from Royal LePage State Realty. “Lower borrowing costs certainly help, but so do stable employment, and realistic seller pricing. The buyers who are active today are cautious but serious; they’re waiting for signs that the broader economy — and the direction of government policy — are on steadier ground before making long-term commitments.”
The 2025 trend suggests that consumers are nervous about the current economy and would like to see more stability before they make a move. If economic indicators point towards greater stability and predictability over the next six months, confidence among both buyers and sellers is likely to grow.
“The fundamentals are still strong, and demand hasn’t vanished. It’s just sidelined,” Boersma explains. “Immigration, limited supply, and the enduring Canadian belief in home ownership remain powerful tailwinds. Buyers need to believe that the ground under them has stopped shifting. Once they sense stability — steady rates, predictable policy, and a clearer economic outlook — they’ll re-enter the market. Those who prepare now, rather than wait for the ‘perfect’ moment, will be the ones who benefit most when the next upcycle begins.”
In this type of market, both buyers and sellers need to be strategic. Buyers can capitalize on lower prices and lower interest rates, whereas sellers who price realistically for today’s market can still see success.
“In short, rates matter — but confidence, predictability, and realistic pricing are what will truly turn listings into sales,” says Girard. “The market’s next surge will start when buyers feel that stability has finally returned.”
By Julie Achtermeier
