What Will it Take to Kick-Start the Real Estate Market?
The real estate market in and around the GTA has shown some fluctuating trends over the past 12 months. While interest rates in Canada have eased from their post-pandemic highs, offering some relief to prospective buyers, the average prices in most GTA markets are either flat or down significantly from their peaks. Despite this, the number of new listings so far in 2025 far exceeds the number of sales, and sales volumes are down compared to years prior.
According to recent data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), the average home price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) was approximately $1,119,000 in September 2025, down about 4% from the same period in 2023. In the Oakville-Milton area specifically, the price for single-family homes was $1,330,000, down 7% year over year, according to the Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board (OMDREB). By comparison, the benchmark price for townhouse/row units was $757,000, a 3% decline from a year earlier, while the apartment price was $571,000, down by 10% from year-ago levels.
So, what will it take to encourage more buyers to commit? Are buyers waiting for economic and political headwinds to become more predictable? Lower interest rates could help, but the Bank of Canada has signalled a cautious approach to further reductions, citing inflation concerns. We asked two local real estate experts to weigh in.
“In the past, when prices have declined, it takes about six months for the market to adjust,” explains George Niblock from Niblock Avis Real Estate in Oakville. “Buyers want to make sure that they are not buying something that will go down a couple of months from now.”
Niblock explains that buyers also need confidence that their own homes will sell for reasonable prices and in reasonable timelines. “When the housing market reaches its lowest pricing point, we typically see increased activity at the lower end of the market, particularly among first-time buyers who don’t have homes to sell.”
This perspective appears to be true now, as first-time buyers find that overall affordability has improved thanks to lower prices and mortgage rates. As more buyers feel confident about both prices and interest rates, we should start to see a “trickle up effect” as demand grows for larger and more luxurious homes.
“Buyers are feeling good about interest rate drops and that more are expected to come,” says Scott Russell from Engel & Völkers in Oakville. “They also understand that prices have likely come down as low as they may go, and any further drop is not going to be significant. This is a great market for buyers looking to buy up.” Russell explains that homeowners upgrading to a larger property may be selling their small home or condo for less, but the gain in property at the higher end puts them further ahead in the long run.
While truly kick-starting the real estate market may require a combination of more attractive mortgage rates, continued price adjustments, and a clearer economic outlook, encouraging factors are beginning to align. With mortgage rates expected to become more attractive and ongoing price adjustments making homes more accessible, buyers may soon find themselves in a better position to enter the market.
“Now is quite possibly the sweet spot for buyers before the market finds its legs again, as it always does,” says Niblock.
By Julie Achtermeier
